FECHA: 0000-00-00 00:00:00
FUENTE: Embassy Panama
PRIVACIDAD: CONFIDENTIAL
REFERENCIA: VZCZCXYZ0009RR RUEHWEBDE RUEHZP #0490 0891953ZNR UUUUU ZZHR 301953Z MAR 07FM AMEMBASSY PANAMATO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0084INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVERUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 0059RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDCRUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 00
C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 000489
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PM
SUBJECT: PANAMA: MOSCOSO ACTIVELY SHAPING OPPOSITION
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR BRIAN R. NARANJO. REASONS 1.4 (D).
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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Asserting the Panamenista Party would not have a
presidential candidate for Panama's May 2009 elections,
former President Mireya Moscoso told POLCOUNS on March 27
that she would work to unify the opposition and have the
Panamenista Party enter into a coalition with a viable
presidential aspirant. While Panamenista Party President
Juan Carlos Varela might be the titular party head and
control the party structure on paper, Moscoso asked
rhetorically, "Why are opposition leaders beating a path to
my door if I'm just a simple Panamenista Party member?"
Predicting a bloodbath within the governing Democratic
Revolutionary Party (PRD), she said that it was imperative
that the Panamenista Party stop seeking accommodation with
the PRD, begin opposing the PRD-led government, and lead
(under her direction) the opposition to unify for the 2009
elections. Through a process of elimination of prospective
opposition presidential contenders, Moscoso suggested that
the Panamenista party would support former President
Guillermo Endara. End summary.
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La Dona on the Move
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2. (C) Moscoso said that she had attempted to give Varela
the space he needed to lead the Panamenista Party, but that
Varela had repeatedly failed to lead by opposing the PRD-led
government, but rather preferred to seek accommodation. She
said that she was incensed by the personal assaults that she
had suffered, including Varela's recent barb that there was a
former female president who deserved to be in prison; "Now is
the time for me to act." (Note: Moscoso is Panama's only
female ex-president.) Varela had passed up numerous
opportunities to oppose the government, such as: penal and
judicial code reform, transportation, and the UNDP-led
national dialogue. She asked, "Why is Varela the only
opposition leader participating in Torrijos' national
dialogue?"
3. (C) Moscoso said that she had begun a series of visits
throughout Panama and had begun to receive a number of
opposition leaders who wished to consult with her, including
former President Guillermo Endara and Patriotic Union party
co-presidents Jose Mulino and Anibal Galindo. "Varela is the
president of my party and controls the formal apparatus," she
said, "but I am the effective leader of the party who is in
touch with the party's bases." She explained that she would
not seek an "extraordinary party convention" to topple Varela
and replace him with leadership that was in synch with the
party's bases. Varela would likely challenge the results by
taking his case to Panama's Electoral Tribunal. "We are not
going to let the PRD-controlled Electoral Tribunal meddle in
our internal affairs," she said, adding, "We need to do the
best we can with the party that we have now."
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Panamenistas to Back Endara?
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4. (C) Lamenting that her party for the first time in its
history was unlikely to have a presidential candidate capable
of leading the opposition ticket, Moscoso said that the
Panamenista Party would need to enter into a coalition to
support another party's presidential contender. She was
dismissive of the Panamenista presidential prospects,
including Varela, Marco Ameglio, Jose Miguel Aleman, Jose
Miguel Teran, and Alberto Vallarino, the last of which ran in
2004 as an independent after failing to secure the
Panamenista nomination. (Vallarino and his then-campaign
manager Varela were expelled from the Panamenista party for
breaking with party solidarity and were subsequently
readmitted.) Moscoso had nothing but invective for
Democratic Change (CD) Party President Ricardo Martinelli who
currently leads the polls among opposition presidential
aspirants. Referring to Martinelli as a "nut" and "crazy,"
she said that she would not permit her party to enter into a
coalition with Martinelli. Moscoso said she thought that
former VP Billy Ford joined the Patriotic Union (UP) party in
the "vain" hope that he would be it's presidential candidate;
UP "will end up supporting the PRD candidate."
5. (C) Moscoso acknowledged that, by process of elimination
of prospective presidential candidates, former President
Guillermo Endara would be the sole remaining candidate that
the Panamenistas could support. Her recent public lunch with
Endara, Moscoso said, had helped the two former presidents
put past differences behind them. Endara knew that his new
party, Moral Vanguard of the Nation (VMP), had to have
Panamenista support if he were to have success, she said.
(Note: Endara's long-time political advisor Menalco Solis
told POLCOUNS on March 13 that Endara would form a coalition
with the Panamenistas and that Panamenista support and
nationwide party structure were essential to an Endara
victory.) Stopping short of saying outright that the
Panamenista party would form a coalition with Endara at the
top of the ticket, Moscoso noted that there was plenty of
time to form formal alliances for the May 2009 elections.
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Comment
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6. (C) Moscoso is frustrated by the current state of her
Panamenista Party led by Varela, dismayed at the opposition's
disarray in which the leading presidential aspirant is
firebrand Martinelli, and fearful that the opposition will
not capitalize on PRD fissures as the PRD determines its own
leadership and selects its own presidential candidate. Her
assessment that former President Ernesto "El Toro" Perez
Balladares would emerge as the PRD's presidential candidate
reflected her desire to paint a gloom and doom picture for
the U.S., probably with the hope that the U.S. would help
unify the opposition; Embassy Panama is not taking that bait.
Nonetheless, shrewd in her assessments and ruthless in her
tactics, Moscoso remains a political operator with whom to
remain engaged.
EATON
