FECHA: 2009-11-12 00:00:00
FUENTE: Embassy Panama
PRIVACIDAD: SECRET//NOFORN
REFERENCIA: VZCZCXYZ0000 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHZP #0877/01 3451922 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O R 111922Z DEC 09 FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0175 INFO RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
S E C R E T PANAMA 000877
NOFORN
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2034/12/11
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PM
SUBJECT: Panama: Colombian Cross-Border Offer Sows Doubt and
Confusion in GOP
REF: PANAMA 639; PANAMA 699; PANAMA 799
CLASSIFIED BY: Gilmour David, DCM; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)
Summary
----------
1. (S//NF) A Colombian offer, which appears to have been accepted
by President Martinelli, to mount a cross-border operation against
FARC forces in Panama's Darien province has caused confusion among
the GOP's senior security team and raised concern about
coordination with USG efforts in that region. The Ambassador has
notified GOP leaders that a Colombian raid would have serious
negative consequences for U.S. security cooperation in Darien. End
summary.
Colombian Cross-Border Operation?
--------------------------------------
2. (S//NF) Vice President/Foreign Minister Juan Carlos Varela
called Ambassador on December 9 to express his concern over
discussions within the GOP about a possible cross-border operation
by Colombian forces directed against the FARC 57th Front in Darien,
Panama. Varela related details of a December 9 meeting between
visiting Colombian National Police director General Oscar Naranjo,
President Martinelli, and senior GOP security officials, in which
Naranjo offered to direct Colombian forces to move over the
holidays against FARC units in Darien. Although Martinelli
expressed a willingness to approve the plan, Varela was concerned
that it was not coordinated with Embassy Panama's DEA-led operation
in Darien, about which Varela has been briefed.
3. (S//NF) The next day (December 10), Ambassador, DCM and PolSec
officer met Varela, Minister of the Presidency Jimmy Papadimitriu
and Minister of Government and Justice Jose Raul Mulino for a
previously scheduled lunch. Varela reiterated his concern about
the Colombian proposal and insisted that there must be a
coordinated plan between Panama, the U.S. and Colombia.
Too Good to be True
----------------------
4. (S//NF) In a sidebar conversation with Ambassador and DCM,
Papadimitriu expressed misgivings about Colombian motivations,
saying that some aspects of Naranjo's proposal "didn't add up."
Naranjo told the group that the GOC had twice offered to the
Torrijos administration to mount such a cross-border operation, but
that Torrijos had refused. Papadimitriu said both he and
Martinelli were puzzled that Torrijos had refused, and they
wondered whether Torrijos had a good reason for doing so.
Papadimitriu noted that Naranjo had enthusiastically touted
President Uribe's leadership repeatedly in the conversation, and he
wondered out loud whether the proposed operations was more for
Colombian domestic political purposes than for security.
Two Plans are Too Many
E
--------------------------
5. (S//NF) The Ambassador reminded the ministers (reftels) that
the Embassy has been working for several months to mount a DEA-led
operation to take down key FARC drug trafficking figures, and a DEA
FAST team recently arrived at post to initiate planning. That
effort is part of our larger Darien strategy of denying safehaven
to the FARC and DTOs in the Darien, which is supported with
extensive resources from DoD, State, and other agencies. The
Ambassador told the ministers that we would have no choice but to
suspend our planned operations in the face of an uncoordinated
action by the Colombians, because it would be unsafe for USG law
enforcement to conduct operations in such an environment. She
observed that such a suspension would be widely noted throughout
many agencies of the USG.
Law Enforcement Means
--------------------------
6. (S//NF) The Ambassador pointed out SOUTHCOM's view that a
military assault against the FARC in Panama would be a violation of
international law, given that the FARC is not engaged in a
recognized insurgency against the government of Panama. She made
clear that a cross-border assault of the type that Colombia has
conducted against other neighbors would likely cause SOUTHCOM to
withdraw its support from the Darien, leaving Panama without vital
training resources for its frontier police.
You're Right!
--------------
7. (S//NF) All three ministers said emphatically that a Colombian
military-style attack would be disastrous for Panama, and that
Martinelli would not knowingly approve such an action. Mulino said
he would seek a meeting with his Colombian counterparts to clarify
their intentions.
Alfaro Again
-------------
8. (S//NF) The Ambassador also reiterated her strong concern over
the continued antagonistic attitude of Olmedo Alfaro, Secretary
General of the Council of Public Security and National Defense (the
GOP intelligence agency), who has repeatedly expressed his
hostility toward DEA and other USG agencies (reftels). The
Ambassador noted that Alfaro was making an effort to insert himself
into Darien with the intention of disrupting USG operations, and
she warned that DEA and others would not continue to operate in
Darien if Alfaro is involved on the GOP side. She noted that the
Embassy is prepared to work around Alfaro, as we have done with
problematic figures in past governments, and that we have devoted
considerable effort over the past few months to develop serviceable
work-arounds.
Comment
----------
9. (S//NF) Embassy Panama is deeply concerned about this turn of
events. A Colombian cross-border attack would not serve U.S.
interests in Panama, and would cause grave damage to our long term
security cooperation. An attack would hand a propaganda victory to
Hugo Chavez, who would claim the attack was launched from a U.S.
base in Colombia. It would be unpopular with the Panamanian public
and would arouse deep-seated Panamanian mistrust of Colombia and
its intentions. It would reinvigorate the anti-American left in
Panama who would inevitably see a nefarious USG hand behind the
action. The resulting public outcry would surely cause a nervous
GOP to restrict security cooperation, negatively impacting the
permissive operating environment that USG law enforcement currently
enjoys.
10. (S//NF) In the short term, a cross-border operation would
almost certainly scuttle the DEA-led operation which is central to
the success of our Darien Section 1207 strategy. For now, we are
proceeding with meetings between the Embassy's Darien working group
and SENAFRONT to develop a common picture of threats in the Darien.
The next step will be a concept of operations which we will review
in detail with the GOP as part of the process of weighing risks and
benefits. In the absence of any coherent GOP structure for
reviewing security strategy, President Martinelli's tendency to
glibly say yes to any proposal by a government he sees as an
ideological ally adds an additional layer of complexity and
unpredictability.
STEPHENSON
